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Table 3 The fitting and predicted values of the elderly population over 65 years old in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023 under three comparison models

From: Prediction of population aging trend and analysis of influencing factors based on grey fractional-order and grey relational models: a case study of Jiangsu Province, China

Year

Population over 65

(10,000)

FGM(1,1)

DES

Logistic

Predicted value

(10,000)

APE

(%)

Predicted value

(10,000)

APE

(%)

Predicted value

(10,000)

APE

(%)

2011

941.28

941.28

0.00

941.28

0.00

933.36

0.84

2012

970.37

961.27

0.94

970.37

0.00

975.76

0.56

2013

1017.94

1015.49

0.24

1005.00

1.27

1019.90

0.19

2014

1072.47

1066.63

0.54

1047.65

2.31

1065.82

0.62

2015

1115.08

1116.93

0.17

1093.85

1.90

1113.58

0.13

2016

1167.55

1167.44

0.01

1145.19

1.92

1163.23

0.37

2017

1199.91

1218.71

1.57

1194.18

0.48

1214.82

1.24

2018

1256.45

1271.10

1.17

1246.30

0.81

1268.41

0.95

2019

1330.29

1324.86

0.41

1306.46

1.79

1324.04

0.47

2020

1387.92

1380.19

0.56

1369.44

1.33

1381.76

0.44

2021

1443.95

1437.23

0.47

1433.10

0.75

1441.63

0.16

MAPE (%)

 

0.551

 

1.142

 

0.544

2022

1522.00

1496.13

1.70

1494.44

1.81

1503.68

1.20

2023

1540.55

1557.02

1.07

1555.77

0.99

1567.97

1.78

MAPE (%)

 

1.384

 

1.400

 

1.492