Prediction of population aging trend and analysis of influencing factors based on grey fractional-order and grey relational models: a case study of Jiangsu Province, China

Table 2 The fitting and predicted values of the total registered population in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023 under three comparison models

Year	Total population (10,000)	FGM(1,1)		DES		Logistic
Year	Total population (10,000)	Predicted value (10,000)	APE (%)	Predicted value (10,000)	APE (%)	Predicted value (10,000)	APE (%)
2011	7514.25	7514.25	0.00	7514.25	0.00	7501.81	0.17
2012	7553.48	7554.75	0.02	7553.48	0.00	7568.24	0.20
2013	7616.84	7616.71	0.00	7607.19	0.13	7626.49	0.13
2014	7684.69	7674.63	0.13	7672.86	0.15	7677.46	0.09
2015	7717.59	7724.52	0.09	7723.12	0.07	7721.98	0.06
2016	7775.66	7766.18	0.12	7776.08	0.01	7760.79	0.19
2017	7794.19	7800.35	0.08	7808.23	0.18	7794.58	0.01
2018	7813.86	7828.04	0.18	7827.84	0.18	7823.97	0.13
2019	7858.27	7850.22	0.10	7857.29	0.01	7849.49	0.11
2020	7876.75	7867.77	0.11	7880.52	0.05	7871.64	0.06
2021	7881.70	7881.48	0.00	7891.42	0.12	7890.84	0.12
MAPE (%)			0.076		0.082		0.114
2022	7872.00	7892.01	0.25	7908.15	0.46	7907.48	0.45
2023	7852.36	7899.92	0.61	7924.89	0.92	7921.89	0.89
MAPE (%)			0.430		0.691		0.668

ISSN: 1471-2318